THE EARTH IN BALANCE---2100

It is not likely that anyone reading this, their children or grandchildren, will be alive in the year 2100. A hundred years from now our great grandchildren will inherit the earth. Vice president Al Gore, in his environmentalist treatise, "The Earth in Balance," warns us that toxic waste and the greenhouse effect will make our planet uninhabitable in the future, and that therefore we should take drastic measures to control the population explosion, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and to clean up the environment.

At first blush his seemingly authoritative and comprehensive research appears admirable and logical, and his promise to make this effort as he gains political power, encouraging. In his book he said that he had to subvert his aim in order to gain the confidence of the voters, and he would carefully watch the polls and edit his message as expediency dictates. But he promises to be true to his ultimate aim once he gets in power, to restore Nature's balance in the environment.

In order to curtail the population explosion, the United States must urge the rest of the world to practice birth control. In order to adequately clean up the environment, a vast new industry would have to be developed. And in order to reduce the greenhouse effect, the greatest offender, the internal combustion engine, must eventually be rendered obsolete. Accordingly, we must reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, which include gasoline, diesel oil, natural gas and coal. Most of our electricity comes from burning fossil fuels and our use of it is ever increasing.

We must soon give up gasoline burning automobiles and trucks, diesel trucks, farm equipment and trains, along with diesel powered construction equipment. We must cut back severely on furnace heat in the winter and air-conditioning in the summer. We would have to think twice about backyard barbecues, trash and leaf burning and campfires. We would all have to cut back, for the benefit of our great grandchildren. This generous and forward-looking motive seems to be the right thing to do, but on further thought, perhaps we don't give enough credit to the ingenuity and creativity of our great grandchildren.

Having recently watched a two hour PBS special on global warming, I was impressed by the extent of scientific concern and research on the subject. Although written records are lacking on the earth's temperature of thousands of years ago, new methods that analyze the patterns of tree growth in different areas of the globe, as well as drillings of the earth's core, including areas below the sea, have given supportive evidence to recent increases in the average temperature. The most rapid rise has been in the last century, the century of massive industrial and technological expansion. These findings, although not definitive, support the theory of the greenhouse effect, contributing to global warming, which, according to Gore and others, can have devastating effects, such as severe weather patterns and the swamping of coastal cities by the melting of polar ice caps.

Some estimate the oceanic rise in meters (which is close to yards), while others think it won't be more than inches.

What is missing in these dire predictions is the development in the next hundred years of alternative forms of energy, those that are renewable and clean. Among these we already know about are solar panels and wind turbines. Right now these alternative forms cannot compete in the present marketplace, but are always ready and available to be utilized if necessary. In addition, nuclear energy is available, but better means must be found to deal with radioactive waste.

The most promising form of clean and abundant energy is the nuclear fusion reaction. This must be a controlled reaction, otherwise the earth could become another sun. Right now no material can contain its extreme temperatures, but new methods of containment are being studied, such as magnetism. I would not be surprised, considering the rate of technological discovery, that a way will be found to supply the world with abundant clean energy.

As for holes in the ozone layer, we will all have to be more conscious about exposure to the sun's ultraviolet (UV) light and utilize effective sunscreens to prevent skin cancer. If the oceans rise, our great grandchildren will have to move to higher ground. As species become extinct, new species will arise, new balances will be achieved, as they have for millenia.

As for the idealistic underpinnings of our vice-president, who promises to make the environment his top priority, not trusting the adaptability of our great grandchildren, who have yet to be born, it may be that the only thing we have to fear, is Gore, himself.

Dr Bloom is Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Wayne State University School of Medicine. He is a member of the American Academy of Psychoanalysis and on the editorial board of the Wayne County Medical Society. He welcomes comments at his email address--- vbloom@comcast.net.